Forex & Gold Analytics – June 08, 2018
In today’s trading, it is likely that the greenback or the greenback seems to want to grab the reinforcement side even though the trade war is getting hot ahead of the G7 meeting later in the night.
As we know that in yesterday’s trading, the greenback condition was under pressure from other major world currencies and gold, so this resulted in EURUSD closing higher at 1.1797, GBPUSD closed up at 1.3422, AUDUSD closed down at level 0, 7618 and USDJPY closed down at the level of 109.68. At the same time making the August contract gold price in New York Mercantile Exchange futures exchange division Comex closed up $ 0.10 or 0.01% at the level of $ 1301.30 per troy ounce.
The value of the US dollar index remained negative in yesterday’s trade, where the dollar index experienced a continuous sell-off after non-US data had entered a positive period. Some of the inflation data from the euro zone also improved, further adding to the euro’s breaking power ahead of the ending determination of the EU central bank’s economic aid package.
Although data on US jobless claims overnight improved, but conditions of trade war provide guidance to investors that negative sentiment to the assets of US dollar background will still take place.
Ahead of the G7 meeting tonight, a growing desire from members outside the United States, that Trump President is likely to be ostracized because tariff policies considered by other members have harmed trade agreements that have been going on for so long.
If Trump still insists on its tariff policy, the dollar index could weaken even deeper, and some of the improving US economic fundamentals are likely to be ignored by investors.
This situation has managed to hold the dollar index off the world’s major currency and gold pressure from the behavior of some US trade policies that always harm or weaken the dollar index itself. It is undeniable that indeed for developed countries, only the US economy alone for now can normalize its monetary policy by raising interest rates.
Actually this situation will have an impact that the currency will also be more sought than other currencies. But this condition is not going to happen forever because the problem of trade war has shackled the strengthening of the dollar index so far.
Some of President Trump’s policies suggest that a weak US dollar is still open as another form of strategy to reduce its trade deficit. Certainly this condition will not last long because it is the driving force in the market price is only because of supply and demand or supply and demand all of it sourced from the comparison of economic data.
Daily Technical Analysis – June 8, 2018
The MetaTrader data we use may differ from the MetaTrader data that readers use. However, we try to present the objective analysis as possible.
This analysis is just a guide for traders to see the market conditions today and not a transaction suggestion.
The upward trend of EURUSD on Thursday session reached 1.1839, testing the 1.1837 resistance zone, but failed to break it as the pair finally closed at 1.1799.
Indications of correction start to be seen on the hourly and 4-hour charts although this pair is also still above support at 1.1783. Other support at 1.1760.
If the first support holds, EURUSD is still likely to rise again at least to retest the resistance zone. Another strong resistance is seen at 1.1760.
But if the return fails, EURUSD will continue to move sideways between support and resistance zone.
USDJPY turned down on Thursday, closing negative at 109.48. The 20-day simple moving average at 110.15 again proves itself as a resistance zone that is not easy to break.
So today USDJPY is more likely to move south with support for resistance-resistance at 109.87, 110.00 / 15 and 110.40.
If the first support zone at 109.46 / 37 is broken then USDJPY will fall to 109.00. But if the strong support zone holds, USDJPY will move sideways between that support and the 200-day SMA.
Yesterday GBPUSD had surged to 1.3472, barely touched the medium term resistance at 1.3480, but finally turned down and closed at 1.3423.
Thus the true GBPUSD bullish move is part of consolidation or correction to the descending trend 1.4375 to 1.3204 is now starting to falter.
Although the odds are not great, today GBPUSD can still move up near the resistance zone. The potential for GBPUSD for today is 1.3420 up to 1.3455 / 80.
AUDUSD tumbled in Thursday’s session until it came under long-term uptrend line as yesterday’s session ended. This pair was closed negatively at 0.7624.
Nevertheless still seen the potential rise on the daily charts because the AUDUSD position is above support 0.7597. But the bigger potential is today AUDUSD will move sideways in the range 0.7590 up to 0.7655.
On Thursday the gold price (XAUUSD) is still showing the same pattern of movement over the past few. Therefore, today the gold price (XAUUSD) has the potential to remain sideways below the psychological level of 1300.00 as happened in the last few days. The price of this commodity is currently having no direction because it is in the consolidation phase.
The expected potential for the movement of the gold price for today is 1292.70 up to 1303.00. In larger time frames, the consolidation range of gold prices is 1281.90 to 1307.55.