WHERE ARE THE NEXT GOLD PRICES?
In early 2018, gold had recorded its highest level at $ 1366 per troy ounce, responding to the increasingly heated situation between North Korea and the United States, rising fears of a trade war that could occur between the US and China, and the Fed’s less aggressive rate hike. This is quite burdensome to the US dollar and equity markets which resulted in market participants also running their assets into gold as a safe haven known as risk aversion.
But over time, the situation eased slightly after a meeting between North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump on Sentosa Island, Singapore. Important results at the historic meeting Trump committed to provide security guarantees for North Korea. While Kim is committed to resolving the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In addition, at the Fed meeting in June, the central bank tended to be hawkish by again raising interest rates 25 basis points to 2 percent, while also pointing to the prospect that there would be two more interest rate increases to be executed so far this year, which in total contained four rate increases. interest since March 2018. This exceeded market expectations which only accounted for 3 times the increase in interest rates. This is the free gold plunger, touching the lowest level in 2018, when this article was made gold was in the range of $ 1261 per troy ounce.
Nevertheless, for a long-term view of gold prices in general can still move in an uptrend as fundamentally the situation of the trade war between the US and China is still continuing, coupled with the US that has not found an agreement on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ) and the European Union. The area that needs attention to look for buying opportunities around the rising trendline which is in the range of $ 1244 / troy ounce. It’s just that there is still a need to confirm the opportunity based on technical analysis. If the buying opportunity has really been confirmed, then the gold price will again have the chance to experience a rebound targeting the range of $ 1308-1366 / troy ounce.
The potential for a rebound in gold prices is likely to be hampered if the gold price falls below $ 1244 / troy ounce or in other words the rising trendline breaks. Thus, it will open the chance for further weakening to the range of $ 1215-1122.72 / troy ounce if this happens.